BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Utah has surged: up 373% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+373%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Utah: up 373% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.99–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.99–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.891.9
20261.40.911.9
20271.50.942.0
20281.50.962.0
20291.50.992.0

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heber Mtn.1520241996
Richfield1320191997
Uintah Nf1219941987
Skyline Driv1020161986
Soapstone920241992
Dixie Nf920212008
Gooseberry720241994
Wasatch Nf720241988
Monticello620242006
Logan Canyon520191997
Beck 2520181994
Navajo Lake320231968
Moon Lake 2220232006
Lost Cr. Res220151995
Ferron220222000
Hyrum119791976
Altonah119821982
Grizzly Rdge120241998
La Sal 2120042003
Beaver120231981
Randolph120182017
Hanna120241997
Bicknell120132013
Canyon Rims120242007
Hardware Ranch120141994

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniavermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.