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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Utah has surged: up 399% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+399%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Utah: up 399% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.95–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.95–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.851.9
20271.40.881.9
20281.40.902.0
20291.50.932.0
20301.50.952.0

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heber Mtn.1720251996
Richfield1320191997
Gooseberry1220251994
Uintah Nf1219941987
Soapstone1120251992
Skyline Driv720251986
Wasatch Nf720241988
Beck 2620251994
Monticello620242006
Logan Canyon520191997
Navajo Lake320231968
Ferron320252000
Moon Lake 2220232006
Lost Cr. Res220151995
Grizzly Rdge220251998
Hyrum119791976
Altonah119821982
La Sal 2120042003
Woodruff120252025
Beaver120251981
Randolph120182017
Dixie Nf120252008
Hanna120241997
Bicknell120132013
Canyon Rims120242007

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniavermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.