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Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Idaho has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

12×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Idaho: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.84–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.84–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.752.4
20271.60.772.4
20281.60.802.5
20291.70.822.5
20301.70.842.5

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape Horn2520251987
Cascade2219841983
Centerville1220191982
Cabarton720241986
Sawtooth City 2520252015
Lolo Pass420191993
Challis420251994
Baldy Mountain420132013
Featherville320151990
Grangeville220231989
Golden220131994
Deep Creek219851985
Alturas219871987
Marble Creek219921990
Joel219911989
Cobalt220242024
Iron Springs220232023
Sawtooth Cty220141988
Naples120241973
Avery119861979
Baker120242022
Leadore120232015
Squirrel120231971
Triangle120122012
Magic Mtn120251998

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.