BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Idaho has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

14×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Idaho: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.89–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.89–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.792.5
20261.60.822.5
20271.70.842.5
20281.70.872.5
20291.70.892.6

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape Horn3020241987
Cascade2219841983
Centerville1220191982
Sawtooth City 2720232015
Cabarton720231986
Lolo Pass420191993
Baldy Mountain420132013
Featherville320151990
Grangeville220231989
Golden220131994
Deep Creek219851985
Alturas219871987
Marble Creek219921990
Joel219911989
Cobalt220242024
Iron Springs220232023
Sawtooth Cty220141988
Naples120241973
Avery119861979
Baker120242022
Challis120241994
Leadore120232015
Squirrel120231971
Triangle120122012
Magic Mtn120221998

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.