BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Maine has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-77%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has collapsed in Maine: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1067.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1067.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1067.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.280.000.78
20240.280.000.78
20250.280.000.78
20260.280.000.78
20270.280.000.78

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clayton Lake720011983
Seboomook Lk620091999
Big Twenty420071993
Deblois319661966
Medway319781977
Ft Fairfield320041993
St David320051982
Lake Moxie320102008
Northfield219811977
Moose River220031984
Baker Lake 2220112011
Ludlow219981982
Washburn220051994
Boundary220092004
Northfield 2119961996
Wilson Mills120141985
Topsfield119961996
Clayton Lake 2120132010
Heron Lake120021988
Cooper119791975
Carrying Pl120011979
Big Twenty 2120092009
Baxter119841984
Greenville120191993
Wytopitlock119961990

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.