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Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Colorado has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+150%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Colorado: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Colorado is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Colorado is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.85.9
20274.42.96.0
20284.53.06.0
20294.63.06.1
20304.63.16.2

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tincup5220251992
Stillwater Pass5120091998
Stillwater Pass 23720252010
Red Cliff2820251989
Castleton2820251988
Buffalo Park2720251992
Weston Pass2520001994
Steamboat L.2020251996
Lake City2020031988
Dolores Riv1920251988
Lost Lake1820251993
Guanella Pas1820251992
Heeney1720192017
Weston Pass 21620252001
Thomasville1520181992
Heeney 21520252025
Lizard Head Pass1320252001
Dunckley Pas1120251992
Ragged Mtn.1020251999
Fox Creek720252008
Rio Grnds Rs620242000
Groundhog Rs620251992
Lake City 2620252017
Yampa520231969
Willow Peak520251988

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniaidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.