BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Colorado has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+141%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lincoln's Sparrow Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Colorado: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Colorado is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Colorado is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.85.9
20264.42.95.9
20274.53.06.0
20284.63.06.1
20294.63.16.2

Lincoln's Sparrow Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stillwater Pass5120091998
Stillwater Pass 24220242010
Tincup3920241992
Red Cliff3320241989
Buffalo Park3320231992
Ragged Mtn.2820191999
Weston Pass2520001994
Castleton2320241988
Lake City2020031988
Dunckley Pas1720241992
Heeney1720192017
Steamboat L.1520241996
Thomasville1520181992
Lizard Head Pass1220242001
Flattops1120191992
Dolores Riv1020241988
Deadman Rd.920241992
Guanella Pas920241992
Lake City 2920242017
Parlin820231968
Lost Lake820241993
Willow Peak820211988
Como820241994
Moon Pass820241998
Weston Pass 2720242001

Lincoln's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniaidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.