BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Northern Rockies has surged: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+220%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Northern Rockies: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.62.8
20262.31.62.9
20272.31.72.9
20282.31.72.9
20292.31.72.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockMONTANA342024
Cape HornIDAHO302024
ChestnutMONTANA262024
Buckskin MtnWYOMING232021
CascadeIDAHO221984
BeaverheadMONTANA192024
Crazy WomanWYOMING182024
SulaMONTANA172024
Hebgen LakeMONTANA162024
Bald MtnWYOMING132024
CentervilleIDAHO122019
MammothWYOMING112024
Hayden ValWYOMING111986
Horse CreekWYOMING102024
YellowstoneWYOMING102022
Ne EntranceWYOMING92021
SaveryWYOMING91989
AlpineWYOMING92024
Soda LakeWYOMING92024
Colter Bay 2WYOMING82023
CabartonIDAHO72023
Sawtooth City 2IDAHO72023
Pagil GulchMONTANA72023
Big SandyWYOMING72024
Savery 2WYOMING72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.