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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 4 has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+109%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in BCR 4: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Lincoln's Sparrow In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 6.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 6.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.56.013
20269.76.213
20279.86.313
20289.96.513
2029106.614

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PetersvilleALASKA302024
Hather CreekALASKA292024
Mt. FairplayALASKA272024
SourdoughALASKA232024
Kanuti LakeALASKA232024
ChickenALASKA202024
Burma RoadALASKA202024
CircleALASKA192024
EagleALASKA182024
DeltaALASKA172024
CohoeALASKA162023
WillowALASKA142024
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA142024
Goose BayALASKA131982
KalifonskyALASKA132023
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA132024
Kanuti CanynALASKA132024
Mud RiverALASKA122024
Galena (Short)ALASKA122024
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA112024
LivengoodALASKA102021
CantwellALASKA102019
ToklatALASKA92024
L SalchaALASKA92023
Tangle LakesALASKA91987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.