BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 4 has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+109%Since 1982
65Routes In Region
43Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in BCR 4: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 6.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029
10Projected 2029 index
6.6–1495% range
±12.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20259.56.013
20269.76.213
20279.86.313
20289.96.513
2029106.614

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 4.
PetersvilleALASKA302024
Hather CreekALASKA292024
Mt. FairplayALASKA272024
SourdoughALASKA232024
Kanuti LakeALASKA232024
ChickenALASKA202024
Burma RoadALASKA202024
CircleALASKA192024
EagleALASKA182024
DeltaALASKA172024
CohoeALASKA162023
WillowALASKA142024
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA142024
Goose BayALASKA131982
KalifonskyALASKA132023
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA132024
Kanuti CanynALASKA132024
Mud RiverALASKA122024
Galena (Short)ALASKA122024
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA112024
LivengoodALASKA102021
CantwellALASKA102019
ToklatALASKA92024
L SalchaALASKA92023
Tangle LakesALASKA91987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.