BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Great Basin has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-90%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has collapsed in Great Basin: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Lincoln's Sparrow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±168.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.83
20260.000.000.83
20270.000.000.83
20280.000.000.83
20290.000.000.83

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walker CanNEVADA991968
RimrockWASHINGTON52024
RonaldWASHINGTON52024
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON52019
Catlow RimOREGON31997
LakeviewOREGON32024
JoelIDAHO21991
Iron SpringsIDAHO22023
PaisleyOREGON22024
Fish LakeOREGON22016
TwispWASHINGTON21994
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA12019
BakerIDAHO12024
LeadoreIDAHO12023
SquirrelIDAHO12023
TriangleIDAHO12012
Magic MtnIDAHO12022
BatesIDAHO12023
Daniels ResIDAHO11992
Dell SpringOREGON11986
Wizard FallsOREGON12005
Bald Mtn.OREGON12003
Picture FlatOREGON12022
HyrumUTAH11979
Hardware RanchUTAH12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.