BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Great Basin has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-90%Since 1973
30Routes In Region
53Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Lincoln's Sparrow has collapsed in Great Basin: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8395% range
±168.8%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.83
20260.000.000.83
20270.000.000.83
20280.000.000.83
20290.000.000.83

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Great Basin.
Walker CanNEVADA991968
RimrockWASHINGTON52024
RonaldWASHINGTON52024
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON52019
Catlow RimOREGON31997
LakeviewOREGON32024
JoelIDAHO21991
Iron SpringsIDAHO22023
PaisleyOREGON22024
Fish LakeOREGON22016
TwispWASHINGTON21994
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA12019
BakerIDAHO12024
LeadoreIDAHO12023
SquirrelIDAHO12023
TriangleIDAHO12012
Magic MtnIDAHO12022
BatesIDAHO12023
Daniels ResIDAHO11992
Dell SpringOREGON11986
Wizard FallsOREGON12005
Bald Mtn.OREGON12003
Picture FlatOREGON12022
HyrumUTAH11979
Hardware RanchUTAH12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.