BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Generalists

Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 3 has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

+172%Since 1999
4Routes In Region
20Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in BCR 3: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.20–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±343.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029
2.2Projected 2029 index
0.20–4.295% range
±343.6%Backtest error
19952029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.00.004.0
20262.00.044.0
20272.10.094.1
20282.10.144.1
20292.20.204.2

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 3.
Dietrich CmpALASKA62024
Galbraith L.ALASKA12019
Happy ValleyALASKA12019
Red DogALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.