BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Sierra Nevada has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-71%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Sierra Nevada: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Lincoln's Sparrow In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.59
20260.200.000.58
20270.200.000.58
20280.200.000.58
20290.190.000.57

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA52023
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA32014
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA32024
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA32019
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA22015
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12019
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12015
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA12008
SattleyCALIFORNIA11983
RivertonCALIFORNIA12014
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12013
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.