BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 468% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+468%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 468% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 128% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.28–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+128%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 128% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.28–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.260.91
20260.590.260.91
20270.590.270.92
20280.600.280.93
20290.610.280.93

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GooseneckMICHIGAN92010
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA52022
GreenbushMINNESOTA51994
JordanMINNESOTA42023
Brush CreekMICHIGAN32015
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN32008
FloodwoodMINNESOTA32024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN22024
SkeelsMICHIGAN22003
Sand LakeMICHIGAN22021
Pine RiverMICHIGAN22018
EnsignMICHIGAN22009
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN22010
CromwellMINNESOTA22023
McgregorMINNESOTA22024
Red LakeMINNESOTA22019
ChaffeyWISCONSIN22024
McnaughtonWISCONSIN22022
CrandonWISCONSIN21974
AmbergWISCONSIN22007
ConoverWISCONSIN22014
FlambeauWISCONSIN22012
RhinelanderWISCONSIN22023
MareniscoMICHIGAN11992
BootjackMICHIGAN11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.