BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+434%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.2–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.2–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.12.95.2
20264.13.05.3
20274.23.15.4
20284.33.15.4
20294.43.25.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stillwater PassCOLORADO512009
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO422024
TincupCOLORADO392024
Red CliffCOLORADO332024
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO332023
Fox ParkWYOMING312024
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO282019
Weston PassCOLORADO252000
CastletonCOLORADO232024
Lake CityCOLORADO202003
Dunckley PasCOLORADO172024
HeeneyCOLORADO172019
ThomasvilleCOLORADO152018
Steamboat L.COLORADO152024
Heber Mtn.UTAH152024
Ryan ParkWYOMING142023
RichfieldUTAH132019
Lizard Head PassCOLORADO122024
Uintah NfUTAH121994
FlattopsCOLORADO112019
Dolores RivCOLORADO102024
Skyline DrivUTAH102016
Deadman Rd.COLORADO92024
Guanella PasCOLORADO92024
Lake City 2COLORADO92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.