BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 463% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+463%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 462% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lincoln's Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.2–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.2–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.95.3
20274.23.05.3
20284.23.15.4
20294.33.15.5
20304.43.25.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TincupCOLORADO522025
Stillwater PassCOLORADO512009
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO372025
Red CliffCOLORADO282025
CastletonCOLORADO282025
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO272025
Ryan ParkWYOMING272025
Weston PassCOLORADO252000
Lake CityCOLORADO202003
Steamboat L.COLORADO202025
Fox ParkWYOMING202025
Dolores RivCOLORADO192025
Lost LakeCOLORADO182025
Guanella PasCOLORADO182025
HeeneyCOLORADO172019
Heber Mtn.UTAH172025
Weston Pass 2COLORADO162025
ThomasvilleCOLORADO152018
Heeney 2COLORADO152025
Lizard Head PassCOLORADO132025
RichfieldUTAH132019
Uintah NfUTAH121994
GooseberryUTAH122025
Dunckley PasCOLORADO112025
SoapstoneUTAH112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.