BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±462.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±462.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±462.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.37
20260.130.000.37
20270.120.000.37
20280.120.000.36
20290.120.000.36

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clayton LakeMAINE72001
Seboomook LkMAINE62009
Big TwentyMAINE42007
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK42005
DebloisMAINE31966
MedwayMAINE31978
Ft FairfieldMAINE32004
St DavidMAINE32005
Lake MoxieMAINE32010
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
WanakenaNEW-YORK32013
Northfld FlsVERMONT31980
NorthfieldMAINE21981
Moose RiverMAINE22003
LudlowMAINE21998
WashburnMAINE22005
BoundaryMAINE22009
Baker Lake 2MAINE22011
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE22017
NewcombNEW-YORK21985
InletNEW-YORK22017
UnderwoodNEW-YORK21989
East HavenVERMONT21999
Wilson MillsMAINE12014
CooperMAINE11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.