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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Lincoln's Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Lincoln's Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±462.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±462.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±462.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.37
20260.130.000.37
20270.120.000.37
20280.120.000.36
20290.120.000.36

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clayton LakeMAINE72001
Seboomook LkMAINE62009
Big TwentyMAINE42007
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK42005
DebloisMAINE31966
MedwayMAINE31978
Ft FairfieldMAINE32004
St DavidMAINE32005
Lake MoxieMAINE32010
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
WanakenaNEW-YORK32013
Northfld FlsVERMONT31980
NorthfieldMAINE21981
Moose RiverMAINE22003
LudlowMAINE21998
WashburnMAINE22005
BoundaryMAINE22009
Baker Lake 2MAINE22011
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE22017
NewcombNEW-YORK21985
InletNEW-YORK22017
UnderwoodNEW-YORK21989
East HavenVERMONT21999
Wilson MillsMAINE12014
CooperMAINE11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.