BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lincoln's Sparrow In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 2 has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+56%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lincoln's Sparrow has risen sharply in BCR 2: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Lincoln's Sparrow In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.08–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.08–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.910.011.8
20270.920.031.8
20280.940.041.8
20290.960.061.9
20300.970.081.9

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St. Mary'SALASKA82014
King SalmonALASKA62025
DillinghamALASKA32017
NomeALASKA32023
Togiak RiverALASKA22005
Gweek RiverALASKA22001
Selawik (Short)ALASKA21987
Katmai N.P.ALASKA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.