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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lincoln's Sparrow In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Generalists

Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 2 has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-0%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 174% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.01–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+174%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 174% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.01–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.850.001.8
20260.870.001.8
20270.880.001.8
20280.900.001.8
20290.910.011.8

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Lincoln's Sparrow in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St. Mary'SALASKA82014
DillinghamALASKA32017
King SalmonALASKA32024
NomeALASKA32023
Togiak RiverALASKA22005
Gweek RiverALASKA22001
Selawik (Short)ALASKA21987
Katmai N.P.ALASKA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.