BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bay-breasted Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Bay-breasted Warbler in New York has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-13%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bay-breasted Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bay-breasted Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Bay-breasted Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Bay-breasted Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2018TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2018 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bay-breasted Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682018
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20140.020.000.04
20150.020.000.04
20160.020.000.04
20170.020.000.04
20180.020.000.04

Bay-breasted Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Bay-breasted Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wanakena220132013
Horseshoe L.220121996
Blue Ridge N219961996
Speculator219841974
S Horicon219681968
Degrasse119841984
Gabriels119891975
Mckeever119811977
Underwood119771976
Dannemora119951995
Highmarket119911979
Willsboro119951995
Newcomb119761973
Hope Falls119911991

Bay-breasted Warbler Population Trend in Other States

mainemichiganminnesotanew-hampshirepennsylvaniavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.