BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bay-breasted Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Bay-breasted Warbler in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-56%Since 1976
13Routes In State
34Years

Notable Bay-breasted Warbler Trends in Minnesota

long arc declinecomputed index

Bay-breasted Warbler has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Bay-breasted Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Bay-breasted Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.02Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.0895% range
±44.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.020.000.09
20260.020.000.09
20270.020.000.09
20280.020.000.09
20290.020.000.08

Bay-breasted Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Bay-breasted Warbler in Minnesota.
Waskish319821982
Cohasset220121989
Crane Lake220242024
Lockport120111967
Sawbill Lndg120211979
Hart Lake119911975
Sawbill Camp120211998
Jordan120212013
Babbitt120212017
Cass Lake119831983
Nebish120141986
Red Lake120061996
Nett Lake120152015

Bay-breasted Warbler Population Trend in Other States

mainemichigannew-hampshirenew-yorkpennsylvaniavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.