BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Blue Warbler in New York has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Blue Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Blue Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.29–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.29–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.281.8
20261.10.281.8
20271.10.291.8
20281.10.291.8
20291.10.291.8

Black-throated Blue Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Black-throated Blue Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet1420171979
Blue Ridge S1320101969
Horseshoe L.1320171992
Old Forge1120061971
Sabattis919831966
Dexter Lake819751969
Old Forge 2820192007
Underwood 2820052005
North River720071966
Highmarket620241967
Wanakena620241980
Gabriels620241975
Number Four520161967
Hope Falls519951968
Petersburg420061966
St Regis Fls420171976
Cattaraugus320191967
Mckeever320231969
Newcomb320221971
Warrensburg320181966
Dannemora320061968
Downsville320191983
Cooperstown219741974
Corbettsvile220231980
Oxford219701970

Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.