Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota
Black-throated Blue Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 359% on the route-weighted index since 1972.
+359%Since 1972
15Routes In State
48Years
Notable Black-throated Blue Warbler Trends in Minnesota
long arc increasecomputed index
Black-throated Blue Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 359% on the route-weighted index since 1972.
Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+21%Change by 2029
0.09Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2095% range
±72.1%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| 2026 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| 2027 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| 2028 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| 2029 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
Black-throated Blue Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota
| Sawbill Camp | 4 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Lockport | 2 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Sawbill Lndg | 2 | 2024 | 2000 |
| Bemidji | 2 | 1980 | 1980 |
| Cromwell | 2 | 2004 | 1972 |
| Tamarac Nwr | 1 | 2011 | 1991 |
| Babbitt | 1 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Debs | 1 | 1992 | 1981 |
| Blackduck | 1 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Cass Lake | 1 | 2004 | 1983 |
| Crane Lake | 1 | 2022 | 1971 |
| Nebish | 1 | 1989 | 1983 |
| Lude | 1 | 1987 | 1981 |
| Waskish | 1 | 1992 | 1992 |
| Hovland | 1 | 2022 | 1974 |
Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.