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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Blue Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 345% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+345%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-throated Blue Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Blue Warbler in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.23
20270.100.000.23
20280.100.000.23
20290.110.000.23
20300.110.000.23

Black-throated Blue Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-throated Blue Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockport820251967
Sawbill Lndg620252000
Sawbill Camp420221993
Bemidji219801980
Cromwell220041972
Hart Lake120252025
Tamarac Nwr120111991
Jordan120252025
Debs119921981
Babbitt120222022
Blackduck120192019
Crane Lake120221971
Cass Lake120041983
Lude119871981
Waskish119921992
Nebish119891983
Hovland120221974

Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.