BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Black-throated Blue Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

13×Since 1970
22Routes In State
54Years

Notable Black-throated Blue Warbler Trends in North Carolina

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-throated Blue Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.46–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029
1.5Projected 2029 index
0.46–2.495% range
±27.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.40.402.4
20261.40.412.4
20271.40.432.4
20281.40.442.4
20291.50.462.4

Black-throated Blue Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Black-throated Blue Warbler in North Carolina.
Kyle3420241994
N. Mills Riv2519951994
Linville1920241976
French Broad River1620242001
Cherokee1320242011
Andrews1019981994
Cullowhee620241974
Busick520021994
Waterville420241994
Oakboro419771977
Marshall220231999
Oteen220241980
Table Rock120221994
Highlands120241994
Jonas Ridge119711971
Brevard120131987
Fontana120171968
Call119921970
Pinelog120112002
Hendersonvil119971996
Murphy120142006
Todd120211995

Black-throated Blue Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkpennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.