BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in New York has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Magnolia Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnolia Warbler has fallen sharply in New York: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Magnolia Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.35–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+137%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±208.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.35–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.362.0
20261.20.352.0
20271.20.352.0
20281.20.352.0
20291.20.352.0

Magnolia Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sabattis2919831966
Inlet1920171979
Blue Ridge S1220101969
Hope Falls919951968
Horseshoe L.820171994
Mcdonough720171975
Gabriels620241975
Oxford519751974
Vestal Ctr520192010
North River520071966
Balmat519971978
Swain 2520242011
Petersburg320131966
Whitney Pt320071982
Dryden319991966
Phillips Cr320241985
Randolph320181967
Mckeever320231970
N Wilmurt319981967
Wanakena320241980
Willsboro320001975
Downsville320191986
Underwood 2320052005
Catskills220042004
Corbettsvile220241966

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.