BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in New York has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Magnolia Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Magnolia Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Magnolia Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 146% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.27–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±236.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+146%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±236.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 146% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.27–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±236.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.292.0
20271.10.282.0
20281.10.282.0
20291.10.282.0
20301.10.272.0

Magnolia Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sabattis2919831966
Inlet1920171979
Blue Ridge S1220101969
Hope Falls919951968
Horseshoe L.820171994
Mcdonough720171975
Oxford519751974
Vestal Ctr520192010
North River520071966
Balmat519971978
Gabriels420251975
Petersburg320131966
Whitney Pt320071982
Dryden319991966
Randolph320181967
Mckeever320231970
N Wilmurt319981967
Blue Ridge N320251969
Speculator320251966
Wanakena320241980
Willsboro320001975
Downsville320191986
Underwood 2320052005
Catskills220042004
Swain220071967

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.