BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in Connecticut has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+20%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Magnolia Warbler Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Magnolia Warbler in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Magnolia Warbler Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Connecticut is projected to rise about 121% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±269.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+121%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±269.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Connecticut is projected to rise about 121% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±269.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.52
20260.240.000.52
20270.240.000.52
20280.240.000.53
20290.240.000.53

Magnolia Warbler Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherman220111974
E Hartland119901973
Buckingham120021972
Westbrook119801980
No Woodbury120002000
Woodstock 2120212017
Warren120111975
New Hartford119871974
Granby120242016

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Other States

mainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.