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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 343% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+343%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Magnolia Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnolia Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 343% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Magnolia Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.43.1
20262.31.43.1
20272.31.43.2
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20292.31.53.2

Magnolia Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill Lndg2520241973
Jordan2520231993
Hart Lake1620241967
Sawbill Camp1320241993
Lockport1020241967
Hovland720241974
Sherry Lake520221970
Crane Lake520241969
Cohasset420181973
Chisholm320242022
Cass Lake220041982
Cromwell220241973
Nett Lake220162013
Mcgregor220241993
Babbitt220231994
Bigfork220231993
Blackduck220222014
Glendale220241993
Nebish120161982
Princeton120042004
Mille Lacs119951995
Floodwood120231968
Island Lake119951972
Bemidji119801980
Debs120021987

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.