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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+313%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Magnolia Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnolia Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Magnolia Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.43.1
20272.31.43.2
20282.31.43.2
20292.31.53.2
20302.41.53.2

Magnolia Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill Lndg2620251973
Hart Lake2320251967
Sawbill Camp2020251993
Lockport1720251967
Jordan1720251993
Babbitt820251994
Hovland520251974
Sherry Lake520221970
Cohasset420181973
Mcgregor320251993
Bigfork320251993
Chisholm320242022
Cass Lake220041982
Crane Lake220251969
Nett Lake220162013
Blackduck220222014
Glendale220251993
Nebish120161982
Princeton120042004
Cromwell120251973
Mille Lacs119951995
Floodwood120231968
Island Lake119951972
Bemidji119801980
Debs120021987

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.