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Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in Maine has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Magnolia Warbler Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnolia Warbler has fallen sharply in Maine: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Magnolia Warbler Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Maine is projected to rise about 163% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±183.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+163%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±183.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Maine is projected to rise about 163% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±183.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.20.0011
20265.20.0011
20275.20.0011
20285.30.0011
20295.30.0011

Magnolia Warbler Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury Pd6619681968
Northfield4619811976
Heron Lake3320031983
Grnd Lk Strm3120001966
Big Twenty2720081993
Forest Sta2620001966
Weeks Brook2120161995
Clayton Lake2020081977
Big Twenty 21920092009
Yankeetuladi1720091994
Waite1619771977
St David1520051982
Ashland1420081980
Wilson Mills1320241983
Nesowadnehun1320211990
Telos1320061995
Wytopitlock1219981976
Horse Mtn1220111983
Ludlow1019981968
Ft Fairfield1020051993
Andover1020212010
Seboomook Lk920141978
Moose River820081983
Carrying Pl820241979
Topsfield819961978

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.