BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in West Virginia has surged: up 945% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+945%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Magnolia Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnolia Warbler has surged in West Virginia: up 945% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Magnolia Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in West Virginia is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in West Virginia is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.943.3
20272.20.983.3
20282.21.03.4
20292.21.13.4
20302.31.13.4

Magnolia Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run2120021988
Glady2020252001
Glade Run 21520252003
Bemis1320252001
Green Bank920251978
Bowden720251993
Canaan420251985
Three Forks420251993
Meadowville420241986
Bismark320092000
Dailey320241973
Mt Storm319691966
Ruthbelle320251998
Olcott220102003
Valley Head220251983
Denmar220232005
Hix120162016
Wymer120091995
Yawkey120032003
Richwood120241985

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.