BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in West Virginia has surged: up 815% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+815%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Magnolia Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnolia Warbler has surged in West Virginia: up 815% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Magnolia Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.923.3
20262.10.963.3
20272.21.003.4
20282.21.03.4
20292.31.13.4

Magnolia Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run2120021988
Glade Run 22020242003
Bemis1920242001
Glady1520242001
Bowden1120241993
Green Bank620241978
Meadowville420241986
Bismark320092000
Valley Head320241983
Dailey320241973
Mt Storm319691966
Olcott220102003
Denmar220232005
Ruthbelle220241998
Hix120162016
Wymer120091995
Yawkey120032003
Canaan120241985
Three Forks120241993
Richwood120241985

Magnolia Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.