BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Philadelphia Vireo Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Philadelphia Vireo in New York has risen sharply: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+75%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Philadelphia Vireo Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Philadelphia Vireo in New York. See the full index history below.

Philadelphia Vireo Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Philadelphia Vireo in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Philadelphia Vireo in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.09
20250.040.000.09
20260.040.000.09
20270.040.000.09
20280.040.000.09

Philadelphia Vireo Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Philadelphia Vireo in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet320051987
Blue Ridge S219881985
Degrasse119801980
Wanakena120232011
Gabriels120172006
Tupper Lake119701970
Underwood119791971
Highmarket119991978
Horseshoe L.120171992
Underwood 2120092008
Blue Ridge N120181985
Newcomb119941972
Speculator120151995
North River119941994
Warrensburg120132011

Philadelphia Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamamainemichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenorth-dakotavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.