BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tennessee Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Tennessee Warbler in New York has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+135%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tennessee Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tennessee Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Tennessee Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Tennessee Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tennessee Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.040.000.07
20190.040.000.07
20200.040.000.07
20210.040.010.07
20220.040.010.07

Tennessee Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Tennessee Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gabriels219991991
Horseshoe L.220171993
Wanakena120102008
St Regis Fls120172007
Underwood119761976
Dannemora119951995
Highmarket119961974
Blue Ridge N120002000
Speculator120071983
Warrensburg119761969

Tennessee Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskamainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirepennsylvaniavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.