BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tennessee Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Tennessee Warbler in Minnesota has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+18%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tennessee Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tennessee Warbler in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Tennessee Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Tennessee Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tennessee Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.77
20260.280.000.77
20270.280.000.77
20280.280.000.77
20290.280.000.77

Tennessee Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Tennessee Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chisholm1520242024
Glendale1020241993
Edwards619971997
Crane Lake620231970
Sawbill Camp620241993
Lockport520241967
Jordan220232003
Tamarac Nwr119971994
Cass Lake119951987
Nebish119951988
Princeton120231991
Cromwell120181974
Mille Lacs120091994
Hovland120241974
Sawbill Lndg120241976
Hart Lake120241970
Cohasset119911973
Sherry Lake120222019
Bemidji119791979
Debs119931985
Little Fork120191995
Lude119861986
Waskish120241982
Nett Lake120212013
Mcgregor120241993

Tennessee Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskamainemichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-yorkpennsylvaniavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.