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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tennessee Warbler Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Tennessee Warbler in Alaska has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-90%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tennessee Warbler Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tennessee Warbler has collapsed in Alaska: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Tennessee Warbler Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Tennessee Warbler in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±464.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±464.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tennessee Warbler in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±464.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.21
20260.000.000.21
20270.000.000.21
20280.000.000.21
20290.000.000.21

Tennessee Warbler Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Tennessee Warbler in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chicken220241996
Kuskulana220171995
Chichagof Is220222022
Eagle120172008
Harlequin L.120192019
Birch Lake120171968
Nabesna Road120152015
Skagway120221997
Mccarthy Rd2120182018
Cantwell120172010
Delta120242005
Kenny Lake119901990
Juneau120222022
Sourdough119951995
Donelly Dome120122012
Thorne Bay119991990

Tennessee Warbler Population Trend in Other States

mainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkpennsylvaniavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.