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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tennessee Warbler Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Tennessee Warbler in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-72%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tennessee Warbler Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tennessee Warbler has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Tennessee Warbler Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Tennessee Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±478.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±478.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tennessee Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±478.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.39
20270.110.000.39
20280.110.000.39
20290.110.000.39
20300.100.000.39

Tennessee Warbler Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Tennessee Warbler in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marenisco520191994
Sidnaw520071993
Isabella 2520142014
Imp Lake420071994
Isabella320091997
Sand Lake320001982
Chippewa Lk.219971997
Shingleton220231995
Mayfield220012001
Ontonagon119711971
Bergland119901988
Bootjack119941967
Herman120221993
Crystal Fls119921989
Maple Grove119971997
Pine River120102010
Brocky Lake120191995
Seney Nwr120031995
Cunard119971993
Creighton120092009
Muskallonge120111966
Tahquamenon119881988
Gilchrist120092007
Raco120251992
Frederic119911991

Tennessee Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskamaineminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkpennsylvaniavermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.