BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in New York has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Cuckoo Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-billed Cuckoo in New York. See the full index history below.

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in New York is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in New York is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.000.93
20260.370.000.92
20270.360.000.91
20280.350.000.91
20290.350.000.90

Black-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Somers719701970
Laurens620091969
Mt Hope519821967
Meridale520241971
Canadice L520191969
Speculator519731966
Warwick419731969
Rushville420221968
Hauppauge320031967
Duanesburg320221967
Dryden320231966
Branchport320221995
Mendon320171967
Highmarket320061969
Sciota319781968
Manorville219951966
Huntington219961967
Jones Beach219711971
Rhinebeck220151970
Highland220131967
Middletown219801968
Catskills220091968
Ghent220051967
Ballston Lk219941968
Cooperstown219741970

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.