BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Kansas has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Cuckoo Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Kansas: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.060.000.34
20240.050.000.33
20250.040.000.32
20260.040.000.32
20270.030.000.31

Black-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coats519841973
Lakin519841967
Gray519971969
Dalton420001969
Olathe219871970
Chapman219761970
Albert219941977
Grantville220151968
Berwet220072000
Goessel220072000
Melrose119811968
Galesburg120131970
Humboldt120041970
Lapland120001974
Jewell 2120162008
Wellington119811981
St John120031982
Coldwater119921975
Ashland120181986
Dover120171967
Barclay120001974
Wreford120181968
Ellinor119921992
Buckeye120191974
Kanopolis120161967

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.