BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Cuckoo Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Cuckoo has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Michigan is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Michigan is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.001.2
20260.470.001.2
20270.450.001.2
20280.440.001.2
20290.420.001.2

Black-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Creighton1120211979
Muskallonge820191966
Cunard720211975
Hubbard Lake719941974
Beaver Lake519941967
Frederic 2520152004
Bootjack420231967
Shingleton420221967
Galesburg420151966
Monterey420151978
Frederic420031971
Hungerford420241991
Barry S.G.A. 2420192014
Ned Lake320241987
Lake City320091970
Pickford320171973
St Charles319911967
Cathro320111967
Sand Lake320221978
Tyre319961968
Allegan Wma320171994
Ontonagon220191970
Bergland220161979
Herman220221997
Ishpeming220212016

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.