BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Missouri has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+99%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Cuckoo Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Cuckoo has surged in Missouri: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Missouri is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Missouri is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.21
20260.080.000.21
20270.080.000.21
20280.080.000.21
20290.080.000.21

Black-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clementine419861974
Mcfall420241996
Elmo320232016
Huntsville320111973
Marshfield320222016
Norborne220162016
Ohio219741974
Rockingham219931981
Kahoka219831977
Bolckow219811969
Barks219951995
Bland220132004
Kirksville220111997
Gildehouse219781978
Pulaski120242017
Cameron120222014
Cassville120222022
Pineville120242017
Kahoka2120172009
Barnard120082003
Watson120232016
New Hampton120192017
Handley119841970
Reeds120232022
Hayden120152011

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.