BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Cuckoo Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.590.002.6
20270.570.002.6
20280.540.002.6
20290.510.002.5
20300.490.002.5

Black-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake Bronson1020111978
Cromwell820251967
Tenney619941978
Waskish420251978
Chisholm420232019
Redwood Fall319861978
Backus320221969
Pine River320221970
Hovland320211976
Lude320251978
Austin320181996
Sawbill Camp320232017
Red Lake320252000
Nebish320191983
Nett Lake320142014
Chatfield219771969
Hartland220151973
Huntley220151980
Chokio219841970
Mille Lacs220241967
Lockport220221976
Floodwood220241967
Debs220251970
Beltrami220241967
Crane Lake220251969

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.