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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Cuckoo Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.002.7
20260.600.002.6
20270.570.002.6
20280.540.002.6
20290.520.002.6

Black-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake Bronson1020111978
Lude920231978
Warroad920231994
Tenney619941978
Waskish520231978
Greenbush420241993
Chisholm420232019
Redwood Fall319861978
Backus320221969
Pine River320221970
Hovland320211976
Austin320181996
Sawbill Camp320232017
Nebish320191983
Nett Lake320142014
Chatfield219771969
Hartland220151973
Huntley220151980
Chokio219841970
Cromwell220221967
Mille Lacs220241967
Lockport220221976
Floodwood220241967
Beltrami220241967
Little Fork220231969

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.