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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Massachusetts has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+107%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Cuckoo Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Cuckoo has surged in Massachusetts: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 244% by 2028 — from 0.15 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+244%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±202%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 244% by 2028 — from 0.15 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.530.001.4
20250.530.001.4
20260.530.001.4
20270.530.001.4
20280.530.001.4

Black-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Dennis520061969
Warren 2520192017
Prattville320181968
E Pepperell319941974
Wellfleet 2320172016
Newburyport220151968
Chesterfield220181970
Ware River220191995
Holden220191979
N. Andover220181995
Chilmark119751975
Marion120191972
Wellfleet120071971
Brockton120171984
Maynard120171990
Littleton120141967
N Oxford120071979
Mansfield120191994
Princeton119731973
Belchertown120211972
Warren120071968
S Barre120231973
N Orange120191976
Cummington120121969
Cheshire119881976

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.