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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Kentucky has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Cuckoo Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-billed Cuckoo in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Kentucky is projected to fall about 46% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Kentucky is projected to fall about 46% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.040.000.12
20230.040.000.12
20240.040.000.12
20250.040.000.12
20260.040.000.12

Black-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mckee319781975
Cumberlnd Gp219951967
Dixon220072007
Cedar Grove119881988
Pleasurevill120181979
Pippa Passes119941994
Beattyville119961977
Hustonville120112011
Mcbrayer119831981
Hodgenville119691969
Merrimac119881988
Johnsonville120211991
Eastview120212021
Drakesboro119861972
Boxville119761976
Joy120042004
Goshen119701970
Glencoe119851974
Buena Vista119741974
Porter119951970
Sewell Shop119921968
East Union119801966
Kehoe119741973
Bardwell 2120062006
Beattyville 2120132013

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.