BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Nebraska has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Cuckoo Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Nebraska: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Nebraska is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±135.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Nebraska is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.30
20230.000.000.30
20240.000.000.30
20250.000.000.30
20260.000.000.30

Black-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Co419991991
Brady320051980
Julian220021975
Kenesaw219791972
Gretna220061967
Irvington219881972
Richland219681968
Table219801978
Berwyn219931993
Johnson120091974
Liberty119871987
Belvidere120081975
Seward119831978
Kearney119871968
Sumner119871987
Surprise120211978
Bartlett119721968
Petersburg120071970
Almeria119721969
Oconto119711971
Paxton120082008
Thurston120191969
Sparta120211986
Winside119971967
Eagle Creek120001968

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.