BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Waterthrush Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in New York has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Waterthrush Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Waterthrush in New York. See the full index history below.

Northern Waterthrush Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in New York is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.10–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in New York is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.10–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.100.43
20270.270.100.43
20280.270.100.43
20290.270.100.43
20300.270.100.43

Northern Waterthrush Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Horicon720172008
St Regis Fls720171977
North River420041967
Wanakena420251983
Inlet320171984
Degrasse320251982
Parishville320231997
E Newark219711969
Pulaski220231980
Highmarket220251967
Speculator220251966
Argyle219991968
Dexter Lake219691969
Naples220152003
Horseshoe L.220171998
Bedford119951969
Rhinebeck119741973
Highland119941970
Rifton119811981
Westbrookvle119741974
W Shokan119881976
Austerlitz119901983
Petersburg119891966
Catskills120101968
Ballston Lk119671967

Northern Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.