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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Waterthrush Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in Minnesota has surged: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+355%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Waterthrush Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Waterthrush has surged in Minnesota: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Waterthrush Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.53 (95% range 0.23–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.53 (95% range 0.23–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.510.210.81
20270.520.220.81
20280.520.220.82
20290.530.230.83
20300.530.230.83

Northern Waterthrush Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill Camp920251993
Sherry Lake720221972
Glendale620252004
Floodwood520241970
Cromwell320251985
Wigwam Bay320232013
Hovland319921974
Babbitt320141996
Blackduck320222014
Tamarac Nwr220102004
Lockport220251967
Sawbill Lndg220241975
Crane Lake220251971
Waskish220251982
Erie219891989
Jordan220251993
Bigfork220252010
Red Lake220251994
Cass Lake120161980
Nebish120231982
Mille Lacs120241995
Pine River120012001
Hart Lake120251967
Island Lake119751974
Cohasset120111985

Northern Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.