BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Evening Grosbeak Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Evening Grosbeak in New York has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Evening Grosbeak Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Evening Grosbeak has collapsed in New York: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Evening Grosbeak Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3011.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3011.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3011.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.380.001.2
20180.380.001.2
20190.380.001.2
20200.380.001.2
20210.390.001.2

Evening Grosbeak Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Evening Grosbeak in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope Falls1819951968
Dexter Lake719751968
Number Four519951995
Dannemora520051974
Wanakena419931989
Sabattis419681968
Horseshoe L.319951994
Highmarket319871979
N Wilmurt319951989
Newcomb320021971
Argyle319761976
Tupper Lake319741968
S Horicon220041989
Degrasse219991999
Gabriels220051975
Parishville219901990
Underwood219961971
St Regis Fls120091976
Mckeever119981998
Blue Ridge N120101970
Old Forge119961971
Blue Ridge S119981970
Speculator120081970
Inlet120161979
North River120071973

Evening Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.