BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Evening Grosbeak Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Evening Grosbeak in New Mexico has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-34%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Evening Grosbeak Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Evening Grosbeak in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Evening Grosbeak Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.001.1
20270.420.001.1
20280.420.001.1
20290.420.001.1
20300.420.001.1

Evening Grosbeak Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Evening Grosbeak in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire1820021992
Angel Fire 2920252005
Ojo Sarco820251968
Gallinas420211994
Claunch219921978
Mt. Taylor219971993
Cloudcroft220241994
Mt. Taylor 2220242017
Cebolla120231977
Reserve119941993
Vallecitos120241994

Evening Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.