BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Evening Grosbeak Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Evening Grosbeak in Minnesota has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-85%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Evening Grosbeak Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Evening Grosbeak has collapsed in Minnesota: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Evening Grosbeak Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±395.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±395.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±395.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.87
20260.000.000.87
20270.000.000.87
20280.000.000.87
20290.000.000.87

Evening Grosbeak Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Evening Grosbeak in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island Lake619951973
Glendale620101993
Floodwood520021982
Bena519771977
Lockport420231967
Crane Lake420111969
Sawbill Camp420241993
Backus319711971
Bigfork319991999
Cromwell219991999
Hart Lake220221969
Jordan220191996
Cass Lake120071980
Nebish120141982
Pine River119891973
Hovland120081974
Sawbill Lndg120171973
Cohasset119841977
Sherry Lake120061969
Debs119981990
Little Fork119971970
Mcgregor120071999
Babbitt120081996
Red Lake119981996

Evening Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemassachusettsmichiganmontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.