BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Evening Grosbeak Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Evening Grosbeak in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Evening Grosbeak Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Evening Grosbeak has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Evening Grosbeak Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Michigan is projected to rise about 174% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±305.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+174%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±305.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Michigan is projected to rise about 174% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±305.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.250.001.6
20230.230.001.6
20240.220.001.6
20250.210.001.6
20260.190.001.6

Evening Grosbeak Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Evening Grosbeak in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Herman2019971984
Gilchrist1020011979
Pine River819931992
Muskallonge620091966
Ontonagon420141971
Red Oak420111985
Bergland320181979
Betchler Lks320081992
Bootjack220211968
Ned Lake220161986
Brocky Lake220151980
Cunard220051979
Creighton220091978
Seney Nwr220011997
Sidnaw220191993
Scott'S Marsh220102010
Cluster Lakes220102006
Tahquamenon220061974
Skegemog Pt220002000
Frederic219991999
Imp Lake220171992
Hiawatha Nf220171992
Marenisco120191981
Crystal Fls119881980
Gibbs City120211979

Evening Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemassachusettsminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.