BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in New York has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-winged Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-winged Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.23
20260.070.000.22
20270.060.000.22
20280.060.000.22
20290.060.000.21

Golden-winged Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Philadelphia920241987
Warwick 2519991976
Duanesburg419731972
Laurens219691969
N Victory219721967
Highmarket219831977
Ogdensburg220241982
Bedford119731972
Somers119731973
Rhinebeck119711967
Highland119921967
Warwick119741968
Middletown119771969
Rifton119831967
Westbrookvle120061974
W Shokan120021969
Mt Hope119681967
Austerlitz119681967
Oxford 2120011978
Catskills119901967
Durham119721968
Meridale119911991
S Berne119831967
Platte Cove119721972
Whitney Pt119891989

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.