BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Vermont has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+6%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-winged Warbler Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-winged Warbler in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Vermont is projected to rise about 48% by 2012 — from 0.06 in 2007 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2012TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2012 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Vermont is projected to rise about 48% by 2012 — from 0.06 in 2007 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752012
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20080.090.000.20
20090.090.000.20
20100.090.000.20
20110.090.000.20
20120.090.000.20

Golden-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Wallingfrd219811981
North Pownal120071985
S Reading119781978
Shaftsbury119981998
W Rutland120011975
Fletcher119831983
Colchester119871987

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.