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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in West Virginia has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-winged Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has collapsed in West Virginia: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1123.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1123.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1123.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.61
20250.000.000.61
20260.000.000.61
20270.000.000.61
20280.000.000.61

Golden-winged Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sugar Grove619761966
Ghent519781978
Clear Creek519981988
Fayetteville319961980
Pedro220171979
Hanover219971984
Richwood219851980
Green Bank219971977
Rockport219691969
Meadowville220151972
Hix119941970
Smoot120131980
Stollings120021986
Bramwell120181978
Welch120031980
Glady120122012
Bemis120022002
Arlee119661966
Spencer119861986
Clendenin119861979
Nicut119931993
Bismark120181976
Yawkey119751967
Lost River120042004
Canaan120031974

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.