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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Tennessee has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-winged Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-winged Warbler in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2016, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2016TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2016 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2016, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662016
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20120.010.000.14
20130.010.000.14
20140.000.000.13
20150.000.000.13
20160.000.000.13

Golden-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smokey Jct120111966
Oliver Spgs119771969
Walland119671967
Fish Springs119801966
Bradyville119801980
Jasper119851972
Elk Valley119981970

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.