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Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Maryland has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-winged Warbler Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-winged Warbler in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.010.000.07
20210.010.000.07
20220.010.000.07
20230.000.000.07
20240.000.000.07

Golden-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Finzel220132013
Floyd119891966
Mt Nebo119881971
Vindex120041967
Oldtown119931971
Potomac Park120191970
Accident120061997
Jennings120141997
Steyer120091998
Green Ridge119951995

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.