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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Pennsylvania has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-winged Warbler Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has collapsed in Pennsylvania: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±254.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±254.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±254.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.14
20230.000.000.14
20240.000.000.14
20250.000.000.14
20260.000.000.14

Golden-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rector319771966
Peru Mills320031966
Laurel Hill219821979
Wakena219821979
Clover119891989
Wyalusing120081988
Whig Hill119881966
Lynch119811981
N Washington119781975
N Pine Grove120031973
Pottersdale119801969
Broad Mtn.120132013
Sproul Sf-A120082005
Ramsey120011969
Jeannette119811980
Rosecrans119981971
Ravensburg119751975
Mawr Glen119941994
Austinville119971997
Waller120061976
Pocono Summit119811966
Hop Bottom119841968
Honesdale119911991
Starlight119831979
Greentown120011975

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiotennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.