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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Michigan has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-winged Warbler Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-winged Warbler in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Michigan is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-91%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Michigan is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.23
20260.030.000.22
20270.030.000.22
20280.020.000.22
20290.020.000.21

Golden-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crystal Fls320242022
Harrietta220241990
Maple Grove220231971
Shingleton219851977
Irons219861971
Walloon Lake219931977
Frederic219931971
Richmond220242024
Ola219871987
Sand Lake219931978
Ontonagon120142014
Bergland119821982
Marenisco120121981
Bootjack119961995
Ned Lake120241986
Herman119971997
Gibbs City120121979
Hungerford120141993
Brocky Lake119831980
Wilson119971979
Cunard119871979
Hiawatha Nf120122012
Isabella119891982
Bear Lake120241967
Scottville120221968

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.