BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+185%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-winged Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.80–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.80–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.722.2
20261.50.742.2
20271.50.762.2
20281.50.782.3
20291.50.802.3

Golden-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcgregor1720241993
Nebish1420231982
Sherry Lake1320221973
Tamarac Nwr1020241991
Chisholm920242022
Wigwam Bay820231992
Cromwell620241967
Nett Lake520242013
Backus420241967
Cass Lake320161983
Cohasset320221974
Mahtowa320231993
Mille Lacs220241994
Hovland220031981
Debs220241969
Little Fork220241990
Brainerd220241993
Bigfork220241993
Glendale220231993
Sherburne Nr120241991
Minnetonka120071978
Princeton120172017
Pine River120211967
Edwards120061979
Evergreen120241970

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.